On Tuesday we are expecting to learn what are the first drugs that will be negotiated as part of the Inflation Reduction Act’s (IRA’s) 2026 Medicare negotiation program. I use the word negotiated loosely.

Last fall I did a lot of work looking at Part D spending files and patent expiration dates and expectations for generics. And I can’t say my results were any different than what others have guessed. But, just for fun, I created this table that compares several different lists. Overall there is a lot of commonality but around the edges, it gets interesting. I don’t know if Vegas has odds (they probably do) but Tuesday morning will start the process. For kicks I added which companies had IRA suits filed.

If we were going by strength of the consensus, the 10 would be:

Eliquis

Xarelto

Enbrel

Imbruvica

Januvia

Jardiance

Xtandi

Ibrance

Myrbetriq

Symbicort